Calculating Middle Expected Value
🛠️ Tools & FeaturesA middle gives you a shot at winning both sides, but you pay juice if you miss. Here's how to calculate whether it's worth it.
The Math Framework
Setup:
Bet 1: Lakers -3.5 at -110 ($110 to win $100)
Bet 2: Celtics +5.5 at -110 ($110 to win $100)
Total risked: $220
Outcomes: A) Lakers win by 4 or 5 → BOTH win → Collect $400 (profit: $180) B) Any other result → One wins, one loses → Net: -$10 (juice)
EV Calculation: Probability of middle hitting (4 or 5): ~15% (based on NFL data) EV = (0.15 × $180) + (0.85 × -$10) EV = $27 - $8.50 EV = +$18.50 per attempt This middle is clearly +EV! ✅ [/example]
When Is a Middle NOT Worth It?
If the window is only 1 point (e.g., Lakers -3.5 / Celtics +4.5):
Probability of exactly 4: ~7%
EV = (0.07 × $180) + (0.93 × -$10)
EV = $12.60 - $9.30
EV = +$3.30
Still slightly +EV, but barely. Factor in execution risk
and it might not be worth the effort.
The Middles Finder Does This for You
- •The window (which scores hit both sides)
- •Historical frequency of those scores
- •Calculated EV per dollar risked
- •Whether it's positive or negative EV overall
Every middle in the tool shows:
Rule of Thumb
- •2+ point window spanning a key number → Almost always +EV
- •1 point window on a key number (3 or 7 in NFL) → Usually +EV
- •1 point window on a non-key number → Often break-even or slightly negative
The Middles Finder pre-calculates EV for every opportunity. Sort by EV to find the most profitable middles available. Read about Key Numbers in Middles to understand why some middles hit more often.