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Middles and Key Numbers

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Not all middles are created equal. Middles that span "key numbers" are far more likely to hit.

What Are Key Numbers?

Key numbers are final score margins that occur most frequently in a sport.

NFL Key Numbers (margin of victory):
• 3 — field goal margin (occurs ~15% of games)
• 7 — touchdown margin (occurs ~9% of games)
• 6 — TD no extra point (~5%)
• 10 — FG + TD (~4%)
• 14 — two touchdowns (~3%)

NBA Key Numbers: • Less pronounced, but 5-7 point margins are most common MLB: No strong key numbers (runs are less predictable) [/example]

How Key Numbers Affect Middles

Middle A: You have Lakers -2.5 AND Celtics +4.5
Window: Lakers win by 3 or 4
Value: Captures the #1 key number (3) ← HIGH VALUE

Middle B: You have Lakers -5.5 AND Celtics +7.5 Window: Lakers win by 6 or 7 Value: Captures the #2 key number (7) ← HIGH VALUE

Middle C: You have Lakers -8.5 AND Celtics +10.5 Window: Lakers win by 9 or 10 Value: Neither is a strong key number ← LOW VALUE [/example]

Middles Finder + Key Numbers

The Middles Finder highlights opportunities that span key numbers with a special badge. Prioritize these — they hit at 2-3x the rate of non-key-number middles.

NFL is King for Middles

Football has the strongest key numbers of any sport. A spread middle spanning 3 and 7 is the holy grail — roughly 24% of games land on exactly 3 or 7.

Open the Middles Finder and look for the "Key Number" badge. These opportunities are the most mathematically +EV middles available. See Middles Finder overview for how the tool works.