Transparent Signal Ledger
Every signal is recorded before the game starts — timestamped, hashed, and publicly verifiable. We publish the full record, wins and losses, so you can judge the edge yourself.
6,561 signals logged to the ledger since May 26, 2026. Every one was written before its game started. Wins and losses are both included below — there is no filter on this page that hides losing stretches.
Line-signal season is quiet right now
Our line-movement edge is validated for the NFL, NBA, and NHL — all currently off-season, so the live record below is a small sample of recent games. We only show sports where the edge is proven out-of-sample, so we don't pad the record with baseball line signals that don't hold up. Most recent tracked signal: June 13, 2026.
In the meantime, our summer coverage is the MLB model board — daily model projections and leans. It's a separate approach from line signals, and its leans are marked experimental while we forward-validate the edge.
CLV
+2.79%
avg vs. closing line · 95% CI [-0.12%, 5.7%]
Beat the Close
—
building sample — needs 20+ graded picks
Record
99W–82L
on 185 settled signals
ROI
+6.6%
hypothetical, proportional sizing · small sample
Win Rate
54.7%
vs. ~52.6% break-even
Evidence-based filters only
We analyzed 3,042 total signals and excluded 94% — only odds bands with statistically confirmed negative closing-line value (CLV confidence interval entirely below zero across both halves of a train/test split). Everything else is shown. We don't filter to make the numbers look good.
Performance
Real returns fluctuate, and the current sample is small. We're publishing it as it accumulates rather than waiting for a flattering window.
Why You Can Trust These Numbers
Immutable Ledger
Every signal is recorded before the game starts with a SHA-256 hash. Data cannot be altered retroactively. Every loss is shown alongside every win.
Closing Line Value
We measure against the closing line — the final odds before game start. CLV is the gold-standard metric for measuring edge, because it stabilizes long before win/loss does. We report ours with a confidence interval, and we'll only claim an edge once that interval clears zero.
AI-Driven & Adaptive
Our system learns from settled outcomes as they accumulate. We change the model only when a pattern holds up out-of-sample — not because it looked good in a small window.
Performance by Plan
Same signals. Pro uses data-driven sizing calibrated to each sport — currently flat 1u across most markets while the CLV dataset grows. Sizing diverges as more settled data confirms sport-specific edges.
Sharp
$9.99/mo
Pro
$24.99/mo
MLB Breakdown
View today's live board →MLB picks come from our Poisson run-scoring model (totals Over/Under). These are included in the overall record above — this section shows the MLB-specific detail. See the live model board for today's upcoming selections.
MLB Model Picks
Poisson totals model · edge ≥3% · medium+ confidence
84W–72L–3P
Record
53.8%
Hit Rate
+2.8%
ROI (flat -110)
Settled picks from our Poisson run-scoring model — totals only (Over/Under), where the model identifies ≥3% edge with medium or higher data confidence. Included in the overall record above. Break-even at -110 is ~52.4%. Sample covers June 24, 2026 – September 2, 2026.
Recent Picks
+ 149 more settled picks
MLB Experimental
View today's live board →Every other game the Poisson model selects — moneyline and run-line — shown for transparency. These are not part of the validated totals product and are excluded from the record above.
MLB Experimental Selections
Poisson moneyline & run-line · edge ≥3% · medium+ confidence
Not counted in the record above. These are the model's non-totals picks (moneyline and run-line). The model selects them, but these markets aren't forward-validated — the fundamentals model tends to under-rate favorites — so we show them for full transparency and deliberately keep them out of the headline ROI and win rate.
187W–220L
Record (uncounted)
45.9%
Hit Rate
-8.2%
ROI (experimental)
Recent Selections
+ 397 more experimental selections
Last updated: September 19, 2026
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Disclaimer: SharpWire is an analytics and education tool. Past signal performance does not guarantee future results. Metrics are computed from historical data and reflect the performance of our detection algorithms, not individual user outcomes. Always bet responsibly.