Help CenterFAQHow Accurate Are the Predictions?

How Accurate Are the Predictions?

FAQ

Let's be transparent about what's precise and what's estimated:

Rock-Solid Accurate (Pure Math)

  • The odds data — Pulled directly from sportsbooks every 10 minutes
  • +EV calculations — Mathematical comparison of Book A vs Pinnacle
  • Signal detection — Algorithmic, based on defined movement thresholds
  • CLV tracking — Compares your bet price to the actual closing line
  • Arbitrage/Middle detection — Pure math across bookmaker prices

Estimated (Model-Based)

  • Model probability — Based on historical base rates + contextual variance
  • Public ticket splits — Modeled from odds movement, not real handle data
  • Edge classification — Depends on model probability accuracy
Think of it this way:

"FanDuel is paying $20 more than Pinnacle for the same bet" → This is a FACT. Pure price comparison.

"The Lakers have a 62% chance of winning" → This is an ESTIMATE. Our model's best guess. [/example]

The +EV and signal features don't depend on model accuracy. They compare real bookmaker prices against each other. That's pure math, not prediction.